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Why Do Large Firms' Prices Anticipate Earnings Earlier than Small Firms' Prices?

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  • BENJAMIN C. AYERS
  • ROBERT N. FREEMAN

Abstract

This paper presents evidence that the positive association between firm size and price leads of earnings is not solely a function of private search incentives for firm†specific information. Specifically, we find that small†firm prices also lag large†firm prices with respect to industry†wide information. Our empirical analysis extends Collins, Kothari, and Rayburn 1987 and Freeman 1987, who document that security†price leads of earnings are positively associated with market capitalization. In particular, we examine the association between firm size and the timing of security returns for two components of annual earnings changes: the average change for a firm's industry and the firm's idiosyncratic change. We find that large firms' prices have a longer lead than small firms' prices with respect to both components. Large firms' early lead on industry†wide earnings suggests that returns of large firms predict returns of same†industry small firms. To test this implication, we construct a portfolio of long (short) positions in small firms when the prior month's returns of large firms in their industry are above (below) average for large firms in other industries. This zero investment portfolio earns 4.5 percent over 12 months.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin C. Ayers & Robert N. Freeman, 2000. "Why Do Large Firms' Prices Anticipate Earnings Earlier than Small Firms' Prices?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 191-212, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:17:y:2000:i:2:p:191-212
    DOI: 10.1506/M9B9-RQD7-U8KA-503U
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    1. Freeman, Rn & Tse, Sy, 1992. "A Nonlinear Model Of Security Price Responses To Unexpected Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 185-209.
    2. Atiase, Rk, 1985. "Predisclosure Information, Firm Capitalization, And Security Price Behavior Around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 21-36.
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    4. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, August.
    5. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P. & Rayburn, Judy Dawson, 1987. "Firm size and the information content of prices with respect to earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 111-138, July.
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    7. Beaver, Wh & Clarke, R & Wright, Wf, 1979. "Association Between Unsystematic Security Returns And The Magnitude Of Earnings Forecast Errors," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 316-340.
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    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    10. Ayers, Benjamin & Freeman, Robert N., 1997. "Market assessment of industry and firm earnings information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 205-218, December.
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    1. Brown, Stephen & Hillegeist, Stephen A. & Lo, Kin, 2009. "The effect of earnings surprises on information asymmetry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 208-225, June.
    2. Jiandong Chen & Douglas Cumming & Wenxuan Hou & Edward Lee, 2016. "Does the External Monitoring Effect of Financial Analysts Deter Corporate Fraud in China?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 727-742, April.
    3. Brown, Stephen & Hillegeist, Stephen A. & Lo, Kin, 2004. "Conference calls and information asymmetry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 343-366, September.
    4. Jong‐Hag Choi & Sunhwa Choi & Linda A. Myers & David Ziebart, 2019. "Financial Statement Comparability and the Informativeness of Stock Prices About Future Earnings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 389-417, March.
    5. Elgers, Pieter T. & Porter, Susan L. & Emily Xu, Le, 2008. "The timing of industry and firm earnings information in security prices: A re-evaluation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 78-93, March.
    6. Kenneth Högholm & Johan Knif & Gregory Koutmos & Seppo Pynnönen, 2021. "Financial crises and the asymmetric relation between returns on banks, risk factors, and other industry portfolio returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 179-198, February.

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