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Analysts' Interpretation and Investors' Valuation of Tax Carryforwards

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  • ELI AMIR
  • THEODORE SOUGIANNIS

Abstract

We examine how financial analysts and equity investors incorporate information on deferred taxes from carryforwards into earnings forecasts and share prices. We focus on carryforwards because, in providing this information each period, management must use their private information about the firm's profitability prospects. Thus, accounting measurement of tax carryforwards is another way of providing a management earnings forecast. In analyzing the role of carryforwards in valuation, we distinguish between two conflicting effects. First, deferred taxes from carryforwards represent future tax savings; hence, they should be valued positively as assets. In contrast, the existence of tax carryforwards may signal a higher likelihood of future losses, which would have a negative effect on expected earnings and share prices. We find that analysts consider earnings of firms with carryforwards to be less persistent because of the increased likelihood of future losses. We also find that analysts tend to be less precise and more optimistic (biased) in forecasting earnings of firms with carryforwards. This higher optimism and lower precision are more pronounced just after firms adopt Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SPAS) 109 and are almost entirely corrected over time. An analysis of investors' valuation indicates a strong positive relation between deferred taxes from carryforwards and share prices, suggesting that these carryforwards are valued as assets. Also, earnings and book values of equity are valued less in firms that have carryforwards than in firms without carryforwards. Finally, the valuation allowance required under SFAS 109 assists equity investors in valuing a firm's earnings and net assets. The combined findings on analysts' interpretation and investors' valuation suggest that analysts fail to fully capture the implication of carryforwards on future earnings within their forecasting horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Eli Amir & Theodore Sougiannis, 1999. "Analysts' Interpretation and Investors' Valuation of Tax Carryforwards," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 1-33, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:16:y:1999:i:1:p:1-33
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1999.tb00572.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amir, Eli & Lev, Baruch, 1996. "Value-relevance of nonfinancial information: The wireless communications industry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 3-30, October.
    2. Amir, E. & Kirschenheiter, M. & Willard, K., 1997. "Firm Valuation with Deferred Taxes: A Theoretical Framework," Papers 97-13, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    3. Eli Amir & Michael Kirschenheiter & Kristen Willard, 1997. "The Valuation of Deferred Taxes," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 597-622, December.
    4. Collins, Daniel W. & Maydew, Edward L. & Weiss, Ira S., 1997. "Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-67, December.
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