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Inflation targeting and core inflation

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  • Julie K. Smith

Abstract

. This paper examines the interaction of core inflation and inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime. Interest in core inflation has grown because of inflation targeting. Core inflation is defined in numerous ways giving rise to many potential measures; this paper defines core inflation as the best forecaster of inflation. A cross‐country study finds before the start of inflation targeting, but not after, core inflation differs between non‐inflation targeters and inflation targeters. Through conditional regressions, inflation expectations as measured by core inflation have not changed with the advent of inflation targeting nor do they differ from non‐targeters. JEL classification: E52 and E31 Cible de maîtrise de l’inflation et inflation sous‐jacente. Ce texte examine l’interaction entre l’inflation sous‐jacente et l’utilisation de cibles de maîtrise de l’inflation dans un régime de politique monétaire. L’intérêt pour l’inflation sous‐jacente a crûà proportion que l’utilisation de cibles a crû. L’inflation sous‐jacente est définie de bien des manières et se prête à plusieurs mesures potentielles; ce texte la définit comme le meilleur prédicteur de l’inflation. Une étude transversale de plusieurs pays révèle que l’inflation sous‐jacente diffère entre les pays qui ont des cibles et ceux qui n’en n’ont pas avant qu’on commence à cibler mais pas après. Via des régressions conditionnelles, on montre que les anticipations d’inflation telles que mesurées par l’inflation sous‐jacente n’ont pas changé avec l’arrivée du ciblage et qu’elles ne diffèrent pas de celles des pays qui ne ciblent pas.

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  • Julie K. Smith, 2005. "Inflation targeting and core inflation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 1018-1036, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:38:y:2005:i:3:p:1018-1036
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0008-4085.2005.00314.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Babecký & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 102-127, June.
    2. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2020. "Disinflation and Reliability of Underlying Inflation Measures," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(1), pages 91-111, March.
    3. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/1, Czech National Bank.
    4. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2015. "Are all movements in food and energy prices transitory? Evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 92-106.
    5. Piotr Wiesiolek & Anna Kosior, 2010. "To what extent can we trust core inflation measures? The experience of CEE countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Measurement of inflation and the Philippine monetary policy framework, volume 49, pages 297-323, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:573:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Tara Sinclair & Dennis W. Jansen & Michael D. Bradley, 2009. "How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2010-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    8. Mateusz Machaj, 2016. "Can the Taylor Rule be a Good Guidance for Policy? The Case of 2001-2008 Real Estate Bubble," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 381-395.
    9. Priyanka Sahu, 2021. "A Study on the Dynamic Behaviour of Headline Versus Core Inflation: Evidence from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1574-1593, December.
    10. Liu, Dandan & Smith, Julie K., 2014. "Inflation forecasts and core inflation measures: Where is the information on future inflation?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 133-137.
    11. Oguz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Ozmen, 2009. "Design and Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures for Turkey," Working Papers 0903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. Stan du Plessis, 2014. "Targeting core inflation in emerging market economies," Working Papers 23/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    13. Julie K. Smith, 2012. "PCE inflation and core inflation," Working Papers 1203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Eftimoiu, Raluca, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between core and headline inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 38-53.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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