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The Beveridge curve and unemployment fluctuations in Canada

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  • Richard Archambault
  • Mario Fortin

Abstract

We estimate the impact of cyclical, sectoral, and participation shocks and that of the trend on both the Canadian unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate over the 1969 to 1998 period. We conclude that a rise in the Canadian unemployment rate of almost 5 percentage units occurred between 1972 and 1982 because of participation rate shocks and a trend movement. Because the trend also explains the leftward shift of the Beveridge curve observed in the 1990s, this shift cannot be interpreted as a decline in the natural unemployment rate. La courbe de Beveridge et les fluctuations du chômage au Canada. Les auteurs évaluent la contribution des chocs sectoriels, des changements dans le taux d'activité, des fluctuations cycliques et de la tendance sur les mouvements du taux de chômage et du taux de postes vacants pendant la période 1969–98. Ils concluent que le taux de chômage non conjoncturel s'est accru de près de 5 points de pourcentage entre 1972 et 1982 en raison de chocs dans le taux d'activité et d'un mouvement tendanciel. Le déplacement vers la gauche de la courbe de Beveridge observé dans les années 1990 est pour sa part le résultat d'une baisse tendancielle des postes vacants et n'indique nullement que le taux de chômage naturel ait diminué pendant cette période.

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  • Richard Archambault & Mario Fortin, 2001. "The Beveridge curve and unemployment fluctuations in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 58-81, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:34:y:2001:i:1:p:58-81
    DOI: 10.1111/0008-4085.00062
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Lam, 2022. "Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-18, Bank of Canada.
    2. Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger & Hans-Friedrich Eckey, 2008. "On the stability of the German Beveridge curve: a spatial econometric perspective," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(4), pages 967-986, December.
    3. Sandra Hanson MCPHERSON & Oscar FLORES, 2012. "Provincial Disparities and Structural Unemployment in Canada," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1), pages 25-42.
    4. Fortin, Pierre, 2024. "Does immigration help alleviate economy-wide labour shortages?," CLEF Working Paper Series 70, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    5. Zhang, Yahong, 2018. "Unemployment fluctuations in a small open-economy model with segmented labour markets: The case of Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 6-20.
    6. Zhang, Xuelin & Morissette, Rene, 2001. "Quelles entreprises ont des taux de vacance eleves au Canada?," Direction des études analytiques : documents de recherche 2001176f, Statistics Canada, Direction des études analytiques.
    7. Kasrin Zein & Lang Guenter, 2013. "Estimating the Beveridge Curve of Egypt: An Econometric Study for the Period 2004 to 2010," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-16, January.
    8. Zhang, Xuelin & Morissette, Rene, 2001. "Which Firms Have High Job Vacancy Rates in Canada?," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2001176e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    9. Carsten Ochsen, 2009. "On the measurement of mismatch," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 405-409.
    10. Yves Gingras & Richard Roy, 2000. "Is There a Skill Gap in Canada?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 159-174, July.
    11. Lars Osberg & Zhengxi Lin, 2000. "How Much of Canada's Unemployment is Structural?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 141-157, July.
    12. Andrés Álvarez, 2016. "La Curva de Beveridge en Colombia (1976-2014): Cambios cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 962, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-03, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised May 2024.

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