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Estimating intermediate price transitions in online auctions

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  • Fredrik Ødegaard
  • Martin L. Puterman

Abstract

This paper discusses a statistical model regarding intermediate price transitions of online auctions. The objective was to characterize the stochastic process by which prices of online auctions evolve and to estimate conditional intermediate price transition probabilities given current price, elapsed auction time, number of competing auctions, and calendar time. Conditions to ensure monotone price transitions in the current price and number of competing auctions are discussed and empirically validated. In particular, we show that over discrete periods, the intermediate price transitions are increasing in the current price, decreasing in the number of ongoing auctions at a diminishing rate, and decreasing over time. These results provide managerial insight into the effect of how online auctions are released and overlap. The proposed model is based on the framework of generalized linear models using a zero‐inflated gamma distribution. Empirical analysis and parameter estimation is based on data from eBay auctions conducted by Dell. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Fredrik Ødegaard & Martin L. Puterman, 2012. "Estimating intermediate price transitions in online auctions," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 529-541, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:28:y:2012:i:6:p:529-541
    DOI: 10.1002/asmb.928
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    Cited by:

    1. Zakonnik Łukasz & Czerwonka Piotr & Zajdel Radosław, 2022. "Online Auctions End Time and its Impact on Sales Success – Analysis of the Odds Ratio on a Selected Central European Market," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 22(2), pages 246-264, December.

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