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Oil production: A probabilistic model of the Hubbert curve

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  • Bertrand Michel

Abstract

The specific distribution of hydrocarbon field sizes has a deep impact on the dynamics of the production inside a basin. This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on the field size distribution, taking into account the launching production process of the fields. This model can be seen as a ‘bottom‐up’ probabilistic method to simulate and predict oil production. The asymptotic results obtained allow us to propose relevant fitting to real production curves. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Bertrand Michel, 2011. "Oil production: A probabilistic model of the Hubbert curve," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 434-449, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:27:y:2011:i:4:p:434-449
    DOI: 10.1002/asmb.851
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    1. Zhao, Xu & Dahl, Carol A. & Luo, Dongkun, 2019. "How OECD countries subsidize oil and natural gas producers and modeling the consequences: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 111-126.

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