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Differential Registration Bias in Voter File Data: A Sensitivity Analysis Approach

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  • Brendan Nyhan
  • Christopher Skovron
  • Rocío Titiunik

Abstract

The widespread availability of voter files has improved the study of participation in American politics, but the lack of comprehensive data on nonregistrants creates difficult inferential issues. Most notably, observational studies that examine turnout rates among registrants often implicitly condition on registration, a posttreatment variable that can induce bias if the treatment of interest also affects the likelihood of registration. We introduce a sensitivity analysis to assess the potential bias induced by this problem, which we call differential registration bias. Our approach is most helpful for studies that estimate turnout among registrants using posttreatment registration data, but it is also valuable for studies that estimate turnout among the voting‐eligible population using secondary sources. We illustrate our approach with two studies of voting eligibility effects on subsequent turnout among young voters. In both cases, eligibility appears to decrease turnout, but these effects are found to be highly sensitive to differential registration bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Brendan Nyhan & Christopher Skovron & Rocío Titiunik, 2017. "Differential Registration Bias in Voter File Data: A Sensitivity Analysis Approach," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(3), pages 744-760, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:61:y:2017:i:3:p:744-760
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12288
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    Cited by:

    1. Luke Keele & Rocío Titiunik, 2018. "Geographic Natural Experiments with Interference: The Effect of All-Mail Voting on Turnout in Colorado," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 64(2), pages 127-149.
    2. Stommes, Drew & Aronow, P. M. & Sävje, Fredrik, 2023. "On the Reliability of Published Findings Using the Regression Discontinuity Design in Political Science," I4R Discussion Paper Series 22, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    3. Stephen B. Billings & Eric Chyn & Kareem Haggag, 2021. "The Long-Run Effects of School Racial Diversity on Political Identity," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 267-284, September.
    4. Ethan Kaplan & Fernando Saltiel & Sergio S. Urzúa, 2019. "Voting for Democracy: Chile's Plebiscito and the Electoral Participation of a Generation," NBER Working Papers 26440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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