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The Timeline of Elections: A Comparative Perspective

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  • Will Jennings
  • Christopher Wlezien

Abstract

How do voter preferences come into focus over the electoral cycle in different countries? Do they evolve in patterned ways? Does the evolution vary across countries? This article addresses these issues. We consider differences in political institutions and how they might impact voter preferences over the course of the election cycle. We then outline an empirical analysis relating support for parties or candidates in pre‐election polls to their final vote. The analysis relies on over 26,000 vote intention polls in 45 countries since 1942, covering 312 discrete electoral cycles. Our results indicate that early polls contain substantial information about the final result but that they become increasingly informative over the election cycle. Although the degree to which this is true varies across countries in important and understandable ways given differences in political institutions, the pattern is strikingly general.

Suggested Citation

  • Will Jennings & Christopher Wlezien, 2016. "The Timeline of Elections: A Comparative Perspective," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(1), pages 219-233, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:60:y:2016:i:1:p:219-233
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12189
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    Cited by:

    1. Jennings, Will & Lewis-Beck, Michael & Wlezien, Christopher, 2020. "Election forecasting: Too far out?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 949-962.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:15:y:2020:i:5:p:863-880 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Andrew Gelman & Jessica Hullman & Christopher Wlezien & George Elliott Morris, 2020. "Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(5), pages 863-880, September.
    4. Mongrain, Philippe & Nadeau, Richard & Jérôme, Bruno, 2021. "Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data: Adding polls to a structural forecasting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 289-301.
    5. Caroline Le Pennec & Vincent Pons, 2019. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates," NBER Working Papers 26572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Rami Zeedan, 2019. "The 2016 US Presidential Elections: What Went Wrong in Pre-Election Polls? Demographics Help to Explain," J, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, March.

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