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The Achilles Heel of Plurality Systems: Geography and Representation in Multiparty Democracies

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  • Ernesto Calvo
  • Jonathan Rodden

Abstract

Building on the unfinished research program of Gudgin and Taylor (1979), we analytically derive the linkage between a party's territorial distribution of support and the basic features of its vote‐seat curve. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the corresponding empirical model with an analysis of elections in postwar Great Britain, focusing in particular on the transformation of the Liberals from a territorially concentrated to a dispersed party in the 1970s. We show that majoritarian biases increase with the number of parties, and majoritarian systems harm small parties when their vote is more dispersed than average, and large parties when their vote is more concentrated than average. Moreover, the evolving experiences of Labour and Conservatives demonstrate how a party's territorial support, and hence its expected seat premium or penalty, changes with its electoral fortunes. This model has a wide variety of applications in multiparty majoritarian democracies around the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernesto Calvo & Jonathan Rodden, 2015. "The Achilles Heel of Plurality Systems: Geography and Representation in Multiparty Democracies," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(4), pages 789-805, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:59:y:2015:i:4:p:789-805
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12167
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Chacon & Jeffrey Jensen, 2017. "The Institutional Determinants of Southern Secession," Working Papers 20170001, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Mar 2017.
    2. Mario Chacón & Jeffrey Jensen, 2017. "The institutional determinants of Southern secession," Working Papers 2017/16, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    3. Carl Müller-Crepon, 2022. "Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 242-258, March.
    4. Sergiu Gherghina & Clara Volintiru, 2023. "Budgetary Clientelism and Decentralization in Hungary and Romania," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 39(1), pages 40-62, March.
    5. Jarosław Flis & Wojciech Słomczyński & Dariusz Stolicki, 2020. "Pot and ladle: a formula for estimating the distribution of seats under the Jefferson–D’Hondt method," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 182(1), pages 201-227, January.

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