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Institutional Characteristics and Regime Survival: Why Are Semi‐Democracies Less Durable Than Autocracies and Democracies?

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  • Carl Henrik Knutsen
  • Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

Abstract

Previous studies report that semi‐democratic regimes are less durable than both democracies and autocracies. Still, mixing democratic and autocratic characteristics need not destabilize regimes, as three highly plausible alternative explanations of this correlation remain unaccounted for: (a) semi‐democracies emerge under conditions of political instability and social turmoil; (b) other regime characteristics explain duration; and (c) extant democracy measures do not register all regime changes. We elaborate on and test for these explanations, but find strikingly robust evidence that semi‐democracies are inherently less durable than both democracies and autocracies. “Semi‐democracies are particularly unstable political regimes” should thus be considered a rare stylized fact of comparative politics. The analysis yields several other interesting results. For instance, autocracies and semi‐democracies are equally likely to experience “liberalizing” regime changes more specifically, and once accounting for differences in degree of democracy, there is no robust evidence of differences in duration between military and single‐party regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, 2015. "Institutional Characteristics and Regime Survival: Why Are Semi‐Democracies Less Durable Than Autocracies and Democracies?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(3), pages 656-670, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:59:y:2015:i:3:p:656-670
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12168
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    Cited by:

    1. David Carment & Mark Haichin & Peter Tikuisis, 2017. "Backsliding and reversal: The J-Curve revisited," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-170, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Saul Estrin & Rajneesh Narula, 2024. "Integrating host-country political heterogeneity into MNE–state bargaining: insights from international political economy," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 55(2), pages 157-171, March.
    3. Edgell, Amanda B. & Lachapelle, Jean & Lührmann, Anna & Maerz, Seraphine F., 2021. "Pandemic backsliding: Violations of democratic standards during Covid-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    4. Christopher A. Hartwell & Paul M. Vaaler, 2023. "The Price of Empire: Unrest Location and Sovereign Risk in Tsarist Russia," Papers 2309.06885, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    5. Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, 2017. "The role of international organizations in regime transitions: How IGOs can tie a dictator’s hands," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(4), pages 406-430, July.
    6. Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Hegre, 2020. "The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 87-111, October.

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