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The Influence of Foreign Voices on U.S. Public Opinion

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  • Danny Hayes
  • Matt Guardino

Abstract

Public opinion in the lead‐up to the 2003 Iraq War presents a puzzle. Despite the fact that domestic political elites publicly voiced little opposition to the invasion, large numbers of Americans remained opposed to military action throughout the pre‐war period, in contrast to the predictions of existing theory. We argue that some rank‐and‐file Democrats and independents expressed opposition because of the widely reported antiwar positions staked out by foreign, not domestic, elites. Merging a large‐scale content analysis of news coverage with public opinion surveys from August 2002 through March 2003, we show that Democrats and independents—especially those with high levels of political awareness—responded to dissenting arguments articulated in the mass media by foreign officials. Our results, which constitute the first empirical demonstration of foreign elite communication effects on U.S. public opinion, show that scholars must account for the role played by non‐U.S. officials in prominent foreign policy debates.

Suggested Citation

  • Danny Hayes & Matt Guardino, 2011. "The Influence of Foreign Voices on U.S. Public Opinion," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 831-851, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:55:y:2011:i:4:p:831-851
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00523.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Del Ponte, 2021. "The influence of foreign elite rhetoric: National identity, emotions, and attitudes toward austerity," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(1), pages 155-178, March.
    2. Junming Huang & Gavin G. Cook & Yu Xie, 2021. "Large-scale quantitative evidence of media impact on public opinion toward China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Gregory J. Moore & Christopher B. Primiano, 2020. "Audience Costs and China’s South China Sea Policy," Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, , vol. 7(3), pages 325-348, December.
    4. Christoph Mikulaschek, 2023. "The responsive public: How European Union decisions shape public opinion on salient policies," European Union Politics, , vol. 24(4), pages 645-665, December.

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