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Economics, Party, and the Vote: Causality Issues and Panel Data

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  • Michael S. Lewis‐Beck
  • Richard Nadeau
  • Angelo Elias

Abstract

Conventional wisdom argues that national economic perceptions generally have an important impact on the vote choice in democracies. Recently, a revisionist view has arisen, contending that this link, regularly observed in election surveys, is mostly spurious. According to the argument, partisanship distorts economic perception, thereby substantially exaggerating the real vote connection. These causality issues have not been much investigated empirically, despite their critical importance. Utilizing primarily American, and secondarily British and Canadian, election panel surveys, we confront directly questions of the time dynamic and independent variable exogeneity. We find, after all, economics clearly matters for the vote. Indeed, once these causality concerns are properly taken into account, the impact of economic perceptions emerges as larger than previously thought. As well, the actual impact of partisanship is clearly reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S. Lewis‐Beck & Richard Nadeau & Angelo Elias, 2008. "Economics, Party, and the Vote: Causality Issues and Panel Data," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 84-95, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:52:y:2008:i:1:p:84-95
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00300.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Onal, Bunyamin & Petmezas, Dimitris & Xiong, Nan, 2022. "Societal equality sentiment and executive compensation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. He, Xiaoyu & Mei, Yixin, 2024. "Can arms breed peace? The consequence of arms imports from the US on civil wars," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 207-229.
    3. Stefano Camatarri & Francesco Zucchini, 2019. "Government coalitions and Eurosceptic voting in the 2014 European Parliament elections," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(3), pages 425-446, September.
    4. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Vyacheslav N. Ovchinnikov & Marina Yu. Malkina & Igor A. Moiseev, 2021. "Two Dimensions of Political Trust in Russia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1934, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Costa-Font, Joan & Mas, Núria, 2016. "‘Globesity’? The effects of globalization on obesity and caloric intake," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 121-132.
    6. Luis Moreno, 2011. "Multilevel citizens, new social risks and regional welfare," Working Papers 1103, Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos (IPP), CSIC.
    7. Nwankwo Cletus Famous, 2019. "Determinants of voter turnout in Nsukka Council of Enugu State, South Eastern Nigeria," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 45(45), pages 109-124, September.
    8. Elina Simone & Lorenzo Cicatiello & Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta & Mauro Pinto, 2022. "Expectations About Future Economic Prospects and Satisfaction with Democracy: Evidence from European Countries during the COVID-19 Crisis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 1017-1033, February.
    9. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman & Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari, 2019. "Political Economy Analysis of Voter Participation and Choices in National Elections in Ghana¡¯s Fourth Republican Era," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 174-198, December.
    10. Briguglio, Marie & Delaney, Liam & Wood, Alex, 2018. "Partisanship, priming and participation in public-good schemes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 136-150.
    11. Albornoz, Facundo & Hauk, Esther, 2014. "Civil war and U.S. foreign influence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 64-78.
    12. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    13. Martin Okolikj & Stephen Quinlan, 2016. "Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 145-166.
    14. Andreea Stancea & Aurelian Muntean, 2023. "An economic offer they cannot refuse! Economic expectations on incumbent government support in Core and periphery European countries," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 82(2), pages 99-119, March.
    15. Antoniades, Alexis & Calomiris, Charles W., 2020. "Mortgage market credit conditions and U.S. Presidential elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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