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Crisis of European Monetary Union Dampens Global Growth Momentum. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2016

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Following a slowdown in economic activity in 2012, economic growth is expected to accelerate again in the industrialised countries, reaching an average annual rate of 2.0 percent between 2011 and 2016. In the USA, GDP will grow at a brisker pace (+2.1 percent) than in the EU 27 (+1.7 percent) and Japan (+1.6 percent per year), respectively. As many euro countries will only slowly overcome the financial market crisis, economic growth in the euro area will be a mere 1.4 percent per year. In the new EU countries, output will expand at more than twice this pace (+3.2 percent per year). China and India will continue to record the highest growth (+8.6 percent and +8.4 percent per year, respectively). In the other developing countries and emerging market economies, GDP is expected to grow by around 4.5 percent per year until 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2012. "Crisis of European Monetary Union Dampens Global Growth Momentum. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2016," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 17(1), pages 24-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2012:i:1:p:24-36
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2013. "Growth Dynamics Exposed to Conflict Between Easy Monetary Conditions and Fiscal Restriction. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2017," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 18(1), pages 25-40, April.

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