Monetary Union Promotes Growth within the EU. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy until 2001

Since the beginning of the 1990s, low real interest rates, an under-valued dollar, and a demand-oriented fiscal policy have together brought about an economic growth rate in the USA that has been high enough to lower both the country's level of unemployment and that of its budget deficit. In contrast, Europe's mid-term economic growth during the same period fell to its lowest level since the end of World War II as a result of the high-interest rate policy pursued by Germany's Bundesbank between 1990 and 1992, the subsequent collapse of the system of fixed exchange rates, and the parallel implementation of austerity measures by the EU's member-states. The realization of the "large" monetary union as of January 1, 1999 and, as a consequence, the elimination of exchange rate fluctuations within the EU will contribute substantially to raising Western Europe's economic growth rate from 1½ percent (1991-1996) to 2½ percent (1996-2001). The USA and Japan are also likely to see their GDPs grow by this rate during the five-year period ending 2001.