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Verschuldungs- und Entschuldungsprozesse prägen die weltweiten Konjunkturaussichten. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2019

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  • Stefan Schiman-Vukan

Abstract

Der markante Rückgang der Rohölpreise stärkt die Konjunktur im Euro-Raum etwas. Mittelfristig wird sie aber von Nachfragemangel und schwacher Preisentwicklung dominiert; auch das Fehlen von Auf- und Abwertungsmöglichkeiten, insbesondere die relative Unterbewertung für Deutschland, hemmt die Wachstumsaussichten. Für die USA ist der Konjunkturausblick sehr günstig, da der Privatschuldenüberhang dank rascher Insolvenzen und großzügiger öffentlicher Budgetdefizite nach der Finanzmarktkrise rasch abgebaut wurde. In China nimmt der Wohlstand stark zu, aber auch die Verschuldung. In Japan sollte der Entschuldungsprozess der Unternehmen in den nächsten Jahren abgeschlossen sein. In Russland droht – trotz der mäßigen Auslandsverschuldung – eine neue Finanzmarktkrise.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2015. "Verschuldungs- und Entschuldungsprozesse prägen die weltweiten Konjunkturaussichten. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(1), pages 39-50, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2015:i:1:p:39-50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hylke Vandenbussche, 2014. "Quality in Exports," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 528, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    1. Wifo, 2015. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 2/2015," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(2), February.

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    Keywords

    Mittelfristige Prognose; Weltwirtschaft;

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