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Finanzmarktturbulenzen beeinträchtigen internationale Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2002

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Der Anstieg des Dollarkurses zwischen 1995 und 1997, der damit verbundene Rückgang der Welthandelspreise und die sprunghafte Erhöhung des Realzinses für internationale Schulden haben wesentlich zum Entstehen der Finanzkrisen in Ostasien, Rußland und Lateinamerika sowie zum Verfall der Erdölpreise beigetragen. Diese Entwicklungen werden das globale Wachstum im kommenden Jahr dämpfen, ein weiterer Rückgang von Zinssatz und Wechselkurs des Dollars und eine Erholung der Rohstoffpreise sollten jedoch eine Ausbreitung der Finanzkrisen verhindern. Insgesamt dürften die Weltproduktion zwischen 1997 und 2002 um 3,5% und der Welthandel um 6,5% pro Jahr expandieren. Während die USA und die EU ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,5% erreichen werden, dürfte es in Japan 1% kaum übersteigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 1998. "Finanzmarktturbulenzen beeinträchtigen internationale Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2002," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 71(12), pages 831-843, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:1998:i:12:p:831-843
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 1998. "Globalization Without Global Money. The Double Role of the Dollar as National Currency and as World Currency and its Consequences," WIFO Working Papers 106, WIFO.
    2. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fritz Schebeck & Andrea Weber, 1999. "Austrian Economy Prepared for EMU. Medium-term Projection for the Austrian Economy Until 2002," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 4(1), pages 21-29, January.

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