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The Crisis Hits Home: Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Sugawara, Naotaka

    (World Bank)

  • Sulla, Victor

    (World Bank)

  • Taylor, Ashley

    (World Bank)

  • Tiongson, Erwin R.

    (World Bank)

Abstract

The financial crisis and economic downturn threatens the welfare of more than 160 million people who are poor or are just above the poverty line in the economies of Eastern and Central Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Turkey. This note concerns the findings of recent World Bank analysis (Tiongson et al. 2010)1 that uses precrisis household data and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes in these countries to simulate the impact of the crisis on households—transmitted via credit market shocks, price shocks, and income shocks. The adverse effects are widespread, with both poor and nonpoor households being vulnerable. By 2010, for the region as a whole, it is estimated that some 11 million more people will be in poverty and more than 23 million additional people will find themselves just above the poverty line because of the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Sugawara, Naotaka & Sulla, Victor & Taylor, Ashley & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2010. "The Crisis Hits Home: Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 12, pages 1-4, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep12
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    File URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPREMNET/Resources/EP12.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Karen Á. Vignisdóttir, 2012. "Households’ position in the financial crisis in Iceland. Analysis based on a nationwide household-level database," Economics wp59, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    2. Piatkowski, Marcin & Zalduendo, Juan, 2010. "Assessing EU-10 Banking Sector's Resilience to Credit Losses," MPRA Paper 24631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Ariun-Erdene Bayarjargal, 2017. "Stress testing the household sector in Mongolia," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 24(2), pages 23-52, December.
    4. Nazim Habibov & Alena Auchynnikava & Rong Luo & Lida Fan, 2019. "Effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on population health," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 327-353, January.
    5. Elif Karacimen, 2016. "Consumer Credit as an Aspect of Everyday Life of Workers in Developing Countries," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 48(2), pages 252-268, May.
    6. Erwin R. Tiongson & Naotaka Sugawara & Victor Sulla & Ashley Taylor & Anna I. Gueorguieva & Victoria Levin & Kalanidhi Subbarao, 2010. "The Crisis Hits Home : Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2396.
    7. Dorothee Bohle, 2014. "Post-socialist housing meets transnational finance: Foreign banks, mortgage lending, and the privatization of welfare in Hungary and Estonia," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 913-948, August.
    8. Aleksandra Riedl, 2021. "Are CESEE borrowers at risk? COVID-19 implications in a stress test analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/21, pages 37-53.
    9. Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan & Haimovich, Francisco & Azam, Mehtabul, 2012. "Simulating the impact of the 2009 financial crisis on welfare in Latvia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5960, The World Bank.
    10. Vladimir Gligorov & Kosovka Ognjenović & Hermine Vidovic, 2011. "Assessment of the Labour Market in Serbia," wiiw Research Reports 371, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    11. Anna Shostya, 2019. "The Global Financial Crisis in Transition Economies: The Role of Initial Conditions," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 37-51, March.
    12. Sugawara, Naotaka & Zalduendo, Juan, 2011. "Stress-testing croatian households with debt -- implications for financial stability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5906, The World Bank.
    13. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2020. "Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9181, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial cirsis; stress testing; household income; Europe; Central Asia; welfare; Soviet Union; Turkey; World Bank; shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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