IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/zirebs/v26y2023i2p97-112n1005.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the determinants and Sustainability of Current Account of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed Rafiq

    (College Education Department, Government of Sindh, Karachi-75270, Pakistan)

  • Jawaid Syed Tehseen

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi-75270, Pakistan)

  • Tabasam Aftab Hussain

    (University of Poonch Rawalakot Azad Kashmir Pakistan)

  • Iqbal Muhammad Shahid

    (Department of Economics and Management Sciences, N.E.D. University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi 74900, Pakistan)

  • Gamli-Dovene Francis Komla

    (IIC International Program & FTMAS CONSULT, Ghana and IIC University of Technology, Kindom of Cambodia)

  • Iqbal Muhammad Javed

    (Riphah International University Islamabad, MS Finance NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan)

Abstract

The study investigated the determinants of the current account deficit from 1976 to 2020 for the economy of Pakistan, and its sustainability. The persistent deficit is necessary to be sustainable if it will be paid off shortly otherwise it will pile up external debt. The conventional methodology concluded that current account deficit (CAD) of Pakistan is unsustainable, albeit one measure suggests sustainability. There is cointegration among variables and domestic saving, external debt, fiscal deficit and trade deficit has positive whereas exchange rate and worker’s remittances have a negative relation with the current account, all the results are significant. The negative sign of the error correction term confirms restoration of equilibrium and it is also significant. Bidirectional causality is reported between the worker’s remittances, exchange rate and external debt with CAD. Unidirectional causality is seen from CAD to trade deficit and fiscal deficit. The diagnostic tests of the model confirm robustness. The government should favour an investment-friendly environment to increase economic activity in the country besides improving domestic savings and reducing the external deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Rafiq & Jawaid Syed Tehseen & Tabasam Aftab Hussain & Iqbal Muhammad Shahid & Gamli-Dovene Francis Komla & Iqbal Muhammad Javed, 2023. "Modelling the determinants and Sustainability of Current Account of Pakistan," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 26(2), pages 97-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:zirebs:v:26:y:2023:i:2:p:97-112:n:1005
    DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2023-0016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/zireb-2023-0016
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/zireb-2023-0016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 1996/058, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Panagiotis Liargovas & Dimitrios Dapontas, 2008. "Currency Crises in Transition Economies: Some Further Evidence," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 1083-1099, December.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    4. Rajakaruna, Iwanthika & Suardi, Sandy, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between current account deficit and budget balance deficit in the South Asian region," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Syed Jawaid & Syed Raza, 2013. "Dynamics of Current Account Deficit: A Lesson from Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 357-366, February.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 1992. "What Are the Long-Run Determinants of the U.S. Trade Balance?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 85-97, September.
    9. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2013. "Are trade deficits sustainable? Evidence from the ASEAN‐five," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 68-82, January.
    10. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer.
    11. Ki-Ho Kim, 1995. "On the Long-Run Determinants of the U.S. Trade Balance: A Comment," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 447-455, March.
    12. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2007. "Dynamics of fiscal and current account deficits in Thailand: an empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(6), pages 454-475, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    2. Attiya Y. Javid & Muhammad Javid & Umiama Arif, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Current Account Dynamics in the Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 577-592.
    3. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
    4. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-11.
    5. Olusegun Akanbi, 2015. "Fiscal policy and current account in an oil-rich economy: the case of Nigeria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1563-1585, June.
    6. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16.
    7. Umer Jeelanie Banday & Ranjan Aneja, 2019. "Twin deficit hypothesis and reverse causality: a case study of China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Oeking, Anne & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "On the relation between capital flows and the current account," Ruhr Economic Papers 565, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Farzane Bagheri & Salma Keshtkaran, 2012. "Testing for Twin Deficits and Ricardian Equivalence Hypotheses: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 3(3), pages 77-84.
    10. Christophe Andre & Mehmet Balcilar & Tsangyao Chang & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Current account sustainability in G7 and BRICS: Evidence from a long-memory model with structural breaks," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 638-654, August.
    11. Adian McFarlane & Young Cheol Jung & Anupam Das, 2020. "The dynamics among domestic saving, investment, and the current account balance in the USA: a long-run perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1659-1680, April.
    12. Ali, Amjad & Audi, Marc, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on the Current Account Balance in Developing Economies: A Panel Data Approach," MPRA Paper 118173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Aworinde, Olalekan B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3l2vounfl99nvqsr0k24sn3k5l is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Renu Kohli, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Stationarity in Managed Floats: Evidence from India," International Finance 0405011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Devi Prasad DASH & Debi Prasad BAL & Manoranjan SAHOO, 2016. "Nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth in BRIC economies: An empirical investigation," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 89-102, Spring.
    18. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Nickel, Christiane, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 935, European Central Bank.
    19. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
    20. Al-Hussami, Fares & Remesal, Álvaro Martín, 2012. "Current account imbalances and income inequality: Theory and evidence," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 459, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    21. Cheam Chai Li & Rosli Mahmood & Hussin Abdullah & Ong Soon Chuan, 2013. "Economic Growth, Tourism and Selected Macroeconomic Variables: A Triangular Causal Relationship in Malaysia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(2), pages 185-206, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current Account; Fiscal Deficit; Sustainability; Time-Series; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:zirebs:v:26:y:2023:i:2:p:97-112:n:1005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.