Conflict in Ukraine and Polish Agriculture: Development Opportunity or Threat of Oversupply?

The main objective of the study is to characterize the market in terms of asymmetry between the dynamic increase in imports and the less pronounced increase in exports from Poland, with particular emphasis on various categories of agricultural products. The research methodology involves the analysis of trade data from Eurostat and a comprehensive review of scientific and specialized literature. The comparative analysis is centered around categories such as cereals, vegetable oils, meat, and dairy products. Key findings indicate a significant increase in the import of agricultural products from Ukraine, especially corn, coupled with a modest rise in exports from Poland. Additionally, a decline in exports for certain categories suggests that part of production has been retained on the domestic market. The main conclusions emphasize the need for effective strategies to manage surplus agricultural products, including the promotion of alternative markets and the development of diversification initiatives for the agricultural sector. Given the challenges stemming from the war in Ukraine, an appropriate approach to shaping agricultural policy becomes crucial for the sustainable development of the sector.