IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/wirtsc/v104y2024i4p252-257n12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Welche Rolle spielt das Thema Zukunft im Bundestag?

Author

Listed:
  • Küsters Anselm
  • Andritzky Jochen

Abstract

For the first time, we analyse the role of future topics in Bundestag speeches between 1949 and 2021 using computational linguistic methods. The results show that the discourse on future issues in the Bundestag rose sharply in parallel with the “Wirtschaftswunder” between the 1960s and 1990s. However, since the global financial crisis of 2008, the Bundestag has lost its future focus. An algorithmic content analysis explains this phenomenon: Recent Bundestag speeches deal more with the short-term challenges of multiple crises and less with long-term frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Küsters Anselm & Andritzky Jochen, 2024. "Welche Rolle spielt das Thema Zukunft im Bundestag?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 104(4), pages 252-257, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:wirtsc:v:104:y:2024:i:4:p:252-257:n:12
    DOI: 10.2478/wd-2024-0069
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/wd-2024-0069
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/wd-2024-0069?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rey, Hélène & Jamilov, Rustam & Tahoun, Ahmed, 2021. "The Anatomy of Cyber Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 16217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Lino Wehrheim, 2019. "Economic history goes digital: topic modeling the Journal of Economic History," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(1), pages 83-125, January.
    3. Byrne, David & Goodhead, Robert & McMahon, Michael & Parle, Conor, 2023. "Measuring the Temporal Dimension of Text: An Application to Policymaker Speeches," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Byrne, David & Goodhead, Robert & McMahon, Michael & Parle, Conor, 2023. "The Central Bank Crystal Ball: Temporal information in monetary policy communication," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Lino Wehrheim, 2019. "Economic history goes digital: topic modeling the Journal of Economic History," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 13(1), pages 83-125, January.
    6. Monroe, Burt L. & Colaresi, Michael P. & Quinn, Kevin M., 2008. "Fightin' Words: Lexical Feature Selection and Evaluation for Identifying the Content of Political Conflict," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 372-403.
    7. Laver, Michael & Benoit, Kenneth & Garry, John, 2003. "Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using Words as Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 311-331, May.
    8. Daniel Volker & Neubert Magnus & Orban Agnes, 2018. "Fictional Expectations and the Global Media in the Greek Debt Crisis: A Topic Modeling Approach," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 59(2), pages 525-566, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wehrheim, Lino, 2021. "The sound of silence: On the (in)visibility of economists in the media," Working Papers 30, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    2. Daniel Levy & Tamir Mayer & Alon Raviv, 2020. "Academic Scholarship in Light of the 2008 Financial Crisis: Textual Analysis of NBER Working Papers," Working Papers hal-02488796, HAL.
    3. Weiss, Max & Zoorob, Michael, 2021. "Political frames of public health crises: Discussing the opioid epidemic in the US Congress," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    4. Nadia Fernández-de-Pinedo & Alvaro La Parra-Perez & Félix-Fernando Muñoz, 2023. "Recent trends in publications of economic historians in Europe and North America (1980–2019): an empirical analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Mohamed M. Mostafa, 2023. "A one-hundred-year structural topic modeling analysis of the knowledge structure of international management research," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3905-3935, August.
    6. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert, 2021. "The Role of Cliometrics in History and Economics," Working Papers of BETA 2021-26, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Levy, Daniel & Mayer, Tamir & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Economists in the 2008 financial crisis: Slow to see, fast to act," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Martin Haselmayer & Marcelo Jenny, 2017. "Sentiment analysis of political communication: combining a dictionary approach with crowdcoding," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2623-2646, November.
    9. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert, 2020. "How Cliometrics has Infiltrated Economics – and Helped to Improve the Discipline," Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. An Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics, History and Political Science, Fondazione Luigi Einaudi, Torino (Italy), vol. 54(1), pages 219-230, June.
    10. Federico Pablo-Martí & Ángel Alañón-Pardo & Angel Sánchez, 2021. "Complex networks to understand the past: the case of roads in Bourbon Spain," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 15(3), pages 477-534, September.
    11. Peter Grajzl & Peter Murrell, 2021. "Characterizing a legal–intellectual culture: Bacon, Coke, and seventeenth-century England," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 15(1), pages 43-88, January.
    12. Greene, Zac & Ceron, Andrea & Schumacher, Gijs & Fazekas, Zoltan, 2016. "The Nuts and Bolts of Automated Text Analysis. Comparing Different Document Pre-Processing Techniques in Four Countries," OSF Preprints ghxj8, Center for Open Science.
    13. David Lenz & Peter Winker, 2020. "Measuring the diffusion of innovations with paragraph vector topic models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
    14. Anselm Küsters, 2022. "Applying Lessons from the Past? Exploring Historical Analogies in ECB Speeches through Text Mining, 1997–2019," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 277-329, March.
    15. Kevin M. Quinn & Burt L. Monroe & Michael Colaresi & Michael H. Crespin & Dragomir R. Radev, 2010. "How to Analyze Political Attention with Minimal Assumptions and Costs," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 209-228, January.
    16. H. Andrew Schwartz & Lyle H. Ungar, 2015. "Data-Driven Content Analysis of Social Media," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 659(1), pages 78-94, May.
    17. H Andrew Schwartz & Johannes C Eichstaedt & Margaret L Kern & Lukasz Dziurzynski & Stephanie M Ramones & Megha Agrawal & Achal Shah & Michal Kosinski & David Stillwell & Martin E P Seligman & Lyle H U, 2013. "Personality, Gender, and Age in the Language of Social Media: The Open-Vocabulary Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(9), pages 1-16, September.
    18. Alexander Herzog & Slava Mikhaylov, 2010. "A new Database of Parliamentary Debates in Ireland, 1922--2008," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp338, IIIS, revised Jul 2010.
    19. Gavin Abercrombie & Riza Batista-Navarro, 2020. "Sentiment and position-taking analysis of parliamentary debates: a systematic literature review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 245-270, April.
    20. Haavio, Markus & Heikkinen, Joni & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Paloviita, Maritta & Vänni, Ilona, 2024. "Reading between the lines: Uncovering asymmetry in the central bank loss function," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2024, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:wirtsc:v:104:y:2024:i:4:p:252-257:n:12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.