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On A Surprising Result Of Two-Candidate Election Forecast Based On The First Leadership Time

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  • Stepniak Czeslaw

    (Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Rzesów, ; Rzesów, ; Poland)

Abstract

This is a simple but provocative note. Consider an election with two candidates and suppose that candidate A was the leader until counting n votes. How to use this information in predicting the final results of the election? According to the common belief the final number of votes for the leader should be a strictly increasing function of n. Assuming the votes are counted in random order we derive the Maximum Likelihood predictor of the final number of votes for the future winner and loser based on the first leadership time. It appears that this time has little effect on the predicting.

Suggested Citation

  • Stepniak Czeslaw, 2018. "On A Surprising Result Of Two-Candidate Election Forecast Based On The First Leadership Time," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 19(2), pages 351-357, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:stintr:v:19:y:2018:i:2:p:351-357:n:1
    DOI: 10.21307/stattrans-2018-020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lengyel, Tamás, 2011. "Direct consequences of the basic Ballot Theorem," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(10), pages 1476-1481, October.
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    1. Stępniak, Czesław, 2015. "On distribution of the leadership time in counting votes and predicting winners," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 109-112.
    2. Czeslaw Stępniak, 2018. "On A Surprising Result Of Two-Candidate Election Forecast Based On The First Leadership Time," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 351-357, June.

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