Analysis of Vulnerable Migration in European Union Countries Using a Gravity Spatial Model: The Syrian Case

Migration represents a complex phenomenon that, when associated with vulnerability, becomes a theme of particular importance in the current global context. The refugees’ crisis had a direct influence on permanent migrants. The COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on short-term migration, increasing the quantity of short-term migrants while decreasing the number of long-term displacement. In this context, the data presented in our study are from 2019, a year in which the mobility constraints resulting from the pandemics have not yet had an impact on migratory flows. All European Union countries were covered, except Cyprus, where data was unavailable. Our study uses a gravity model of migration Syrian migrant. Through our analysis, we aimed to capture the determinants of migration flows from Syria to EU countries. It also aims to capture a range of spatial effects that may have an impact on the factors influencing the migration flows of Syrian migrants into the European Union countries. The results showed significant influences on Syrian migration flow to European Union countries, distance being a decisive factor in the decision to migrate.