IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/hjobpa/v11y2020i3p11-24n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Fiscal Deficits Really Inflationary? An Investigation Into Ethiopia’s Experience

Author

Listed:
  • Alemu Minyahil

    (Jimma University, Ethiopia)

Abstract

This study establishes long-run relations between budget deficits and inflation, while controlling for money supply owing to the justified links between deficits and money supply especially for developing countries. We employed time series data with temporal coverage of 1980-2018. Augmented Dickey Fuller has tested nonstationary for all series, but with all stationary at first difference. The Engle-Granger (1981) methodology for Cointegration tested long-run relation between budget deficits, money supply and inflation. Due to Laney and Willet (1983), the conventional least squares regression was adopted to estimate parameters of long-run equation. The results evidenced that fiscal deficits and money supply have been at the root of galloping inflation in Ethiopia. Besides, budget deficits have been the root cause of money supply growth in Ethiopia; while giving empirical support to the hypothesis that, governments of least developed countries resort to monetize large portion of their deficits. There is a need to reform the fiscal aspect of the government, if the mounting rate of deficits has to be lessened. Budgetary imbalances can be rectified through enhancement of domestic capital market and setting limits on central bank borrowing. Besides, it could be vital to expand the tax base as well as intensify efficiency of the existing tax system in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Alemu Minyahil, 2020. "Are Fiscal Deficits Really Inflationary? An Investigation Into Ethiopia’s Experience," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 11(3), pages 11-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:hjobpa:v:11:y:2020:i:3:p:11-24:n:2
    DOI: 10.2478/hjbpa-2020-0029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/hjbpa-2020-0029
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/hjbpa-2020-0029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sohrab Abizadeh & Mahmood Yousefi, 1998. "Deficits and inflation: an open economy model of the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1307-1316.
    2. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Budget deficits, money supply and price level in West Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1-8, October.
    3. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    4. repec:aer:wpaper:65 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kilindo, A.A.L., 1997. "Fiscal Operations, Money Supply and Inflation in Tanzania," Papers 65, African Economic Research Consortium.
    6. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Willem Thorbecke, 2002. "A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve: The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 255-268, Spring.
    2. Aaron Jackson & William Miles, 2008. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Disinflation in Emerging Markets: How Large Is the Effect?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(3), pages 538-557, October.
    3. Rose, Andrew, 2014. "The Bond Market: An Inflation-Targeter's Best Friend," CEPR Discussion Papers 10124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 117-135.
    5. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E., 1995. "Optimal commitment in an open economy : Credibility vs. flexibility," Discussion Paper 1995-79, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2005. "Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 387-412, April.
    7. Emna Trabelsi, 2016. "Transparency on inflation of OECD countries? An Application of LSDVC Estimator on a dynamic Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1095-1126.
    8. Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.
    9. Mostafa SALIMIFAR & Mohammad Javd RAZMI & Zahra TAGHIZADEGAN, 2015. "A survey of the effect of trade openness size on inflation rate in Iran using ARDL," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(604), A), pages 143-154, Autumn.
    10. Bernd Hayo & Ummad Mazhar, 2014. "Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement, Determinants, and Economic Effects," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 739-770, September.
    11. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano & Yakub, Ma'aji Umar & Sanni, Ganiyu Kayode & Duke, Omolara, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Nigeria: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 25053, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Mar 2010.
    12. repec:cep:stiecm:/2014/572 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Berlemann, Michael & Hielscher, Kai, 2009. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism," Working Paper 89/2009, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    14. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.
    15. Adriana Arreaza Coll & Luis Enrique Pedauga, 2007. "Instituciones, estructura económica y política económica: ¿qué hay detrás de la inflación en América Latina?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 7-48, enero-mar.
    16. Georgios Karras, 2001. "Openness to Trade and the Potency of Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 61-73, January.
    17. Rashid Sbia & Helmi Hamdi, 2020. "Remittances and inflation in OPEC countries:Evidence from bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable (CLSDV) estimator," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2471-2483.
    18. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2011. "Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation: Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3690, CESifo.
    19. Neely, Christopher J. & Rapach, David E., 2011. "International comovements in inflation rates and country characteristics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1471-1490.
    20. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2008. "Does capital account openness lower inflation?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 471-487.
    21. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Davis, Junior, 2013. "Exchange rate regimes and economic performance: Does CFA zone membership benefit their economies?," MPRA Paper 54075, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:hjobpa:v:11:y:2020:i:3:p:11-24:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.