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De-Dollarisation in International Payments: Trend or Fiction

Author

Listed:
  • Todorova Vesela

    (International Economic Relations & Business Dept., University of National and World Economy, Bulgaria)

  • Moraliyska Monika

    (International Economic Relations & Business Dept., University of National and World Economy, Bulgaria)

  • Raycheva Iva

    (Statistics and Econometrics Dept., University of National and World Economy, Bulgaria)

Abstract

The present research paper is focused the widely debated topic related to de-dollarization. It examines the trend of de-dollarization to check if the statements that the dollar is losing its weight and is about to lose its leading position in international trade payments are substantiated. Firstly, the theoretical framework behind the dollarization is explored. Secondly, the factors believed to be the basis of the de-dollarization process have been identified and analyzed, which are related to: geopolitical processes, changes in international payments policy in some BRICS countries, changes in international trade, etc. A performed analysis of the currency turnover in international trade, based on data from official sources, was made through forecast regression, which predicts the development of the share of the dollar in international payments. A correlation matrix was also calculated, showing the correlation links between the dollar and the other leadng currencies. The hypothesis, which is confirmed by the practical research, is that the de-dollarization process is proceeding slowly and uncertainly, and will continue to develop at a low pace leading to insignificant changes in the structure of the currency composition of international payments in the short and medium term. Further research could further explore each of the factors that could lead to a real dedollarisation trend in international payments.

Suggested Citation

  • Todorova Vesela & Moraliyska Monika & Raycheva Iva, 2024. "De-Dollarisation in International Payments: Trend or Fiction," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 129-144.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:econom:v:12:y:2024:i:2:p:129-144:n:1008
    DOI: 10.2478/eoik-2024-0018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harald Hirschhofer, 2019. "Would Gradual De‐Dollarization and More Financing in Local Currencies Boost Trade?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 10(3), pages 435-439, September.
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      More about this item

      Keywords

      international payments; foreign exchange; currency; dedollarisation;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
      • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
      • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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