Assessing the resilience of the Baltic air transport sector in the context of economic crises

The significance of this study lies in assessing the resilience of the air transport sector to economic crises, which is crucial in today’s context where sustainable environmental development has become a new reality, and the development of aviation services is insufficient for achieving stable and resilient economic growth in the sector. The air transport sector significantly contributes to regional economic growth and the development of various other business sectors. This article evaluates the resilience of the air transport sector in the Baltic countries in the context of economic crises. The novelty of the research stems from the air transport sector undergoing entirely new and unexplored processes, significantly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and previous crises, such as the September 11 attacks and the Great Financial Crisis. There is a lack of a comprehensive evaluation model to assess the resilience of the air transport sector under economic instability. The article aims to assess the resilience of the air transport sector in the Baltic countries in the context of economic crises. The article describes external factors influencing the economic growth of the air transport sector. It examines the perspectives of different authors and institutions on the development of the air transport sector. The study analyses national and international documents, development plans, and investments related to enhancing the resilience of the air transport sector to economic crises. To assess the resilience of the air transport sector in the Baltic countries in the context of economic crises, an empirical study was conducted using the following methods: Pearson correlation coefficient method to evaluate the relationship between Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) and Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) indicators of the sole national airline in the Baltic States, “Air Baltic”, which belongs to Latvia, crucial for ensuring comprehensive stability; a multi-criteria evaluation using Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods to assess the current state and recovery level of the Baltic air transport sector after the COVID-19 pandemic; and an exponential smoothing method to forecast the growth of the Baltic air transport sector from 2024 to 2027, providing a realistic scenario.