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Prediction of Changes in the Tax Burden of Land Plots with the Use of Multivariate Statistical Analysis Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Dmytrów Krzysztof

    (University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland)

  • Gnat Sebastian

    (University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland)

Abstract

It is believed that the ad valorem tax will increase fiscal burdens. In order to verify this statement, with the use of the Szczecin Algorithm of Real Estates Mass Appraisal, the land plots were appraised and the ad valorem tax was calculated. Next, a training set was sampled, for which the composite variable was calculated by means of three approaches: the TOPSIS method, the Generalised Distance Measure as the composite measure of development (GDM2), and the quasi-TOPSIS. They were the explanatory variables in the logistic regression model. Next, for the test set, changes of tax burden were forecasted. The aim of the research was to check the effectiveness of the presented approach for the estimation of the consequences of introducing the ad valorem tax. The results showed that all three approaches yielded similar results, but GDM2 was the best one. The main finding is that these approaches can be used in the prediction of changes in the tax burden of land plots.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmytrów Krzysztof & Gnat Sebastian, 2019. "Prediction of Changes in the Tax Burden of Land Plots with the Use of Multivariate Statistical Analysis Methods," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 33-48, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:eaiada:v:23:y:2019:i:2:p:33-48:n:3
    DOI: 10.15611/eada.2019.2.03
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    Keywords

    logistic regression; classification; multivariate statistical analysis; real estate mass appraisal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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