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The impact of public debt on economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire: New evidence from linear and non-linear ARDL approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Saungwem Talknice

    (Department of Economics, University of South Africa, South Africa)

  • Maluleke Glenda

    (Department of Economics, University of South Africa, South Africa)

  • Odhiambo Nicholas M.

    (Department of Economics, University of South Africa, South Africa)

Abstract

This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric impact of public debt on economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire using time series data from 1972 to 2021. The analyses were performed using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The study also utilised the bounds F-test for cointegration, the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) nonlinearity test, and the Wald test for asymmetries. The findings of the bounds F-test provide support for both linear and nonlinear cointegration. The BDS test results indicate that the series are nonlinear, while Wald test results revealed an asymmetric relationship between public debt and economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire in the short run and symmetric relationship in the long run. Estimation results for the symmetric ARDL regression model provide no evidence of a statistically significant impact of public debt on economic growth, regardless of whether the analysis was conducted in the short run or long run. The NARDL findings indicate that, on average, positive changes to public debt lead to economic decline in the long run, while negative changes cause an economic upturn in the short run. The findings also show that GDP growth responds rapidly and strongly to negative changes in public debt. Therefore, the study encourages the government of Côte d'Ivoire to be cautious about public debt rise because it was established that they have a negative impact on economic growth. Negative changes in the public debt can serve to minimise the uncertainties in the business environment, thus promoting private, public, and foreign direct investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Saungwem Talknice & Maluleke Glenda & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2023. "The impact of public debt on economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire: New evidence from linear and non-linear ARDL approaches," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 61-77, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:crebss:v:9:y:2023:i:1:p:61-77:n:1
    DOI: 10.2478/crebss-2023-0005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1980. "Federal Deficit Policy and the Effects of Public Debt Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 747-762, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; Côte d'Ivoire; economic growth; NARDL; public debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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