The Asymmetric Effect of the Business Cycle on Poverty in Argentina

After the crisis of 2002, Argentina started a process of strong recovery of the social indicators, which slowed from 2007 and has stagnated since 2012. The present situation is slightly better in relation to the 1990s, but worse if the comparison is made with the 1980s and the 1970s. Despite the high growth rates experienced until 2011, income distribution was the main cause of improvement in poverty and extreme poverty measures. This article examines the risk of reversing in the coming years part of the recovery achieved. This risk is based on the possible asymmetric effect of the business cycle on social indicators, analyzed through the income and income distribution elasticities of poverty and extreme poverty estimated for the 2003-2017 period. Key words: Poverty, Income growth, Income distribution, Business cycle, Argentina. JEL: C22, D31, E32, I32. Asimetrični efekat poslovnog ciklusa na siromaštvo u Argentini Nakon krize iz 2002. godine, Argentina je pokrenula proces snažnog oporavka socijalnih indikatora, koji se usporio 2007. godine i stagnirao od 2012. godine. Sadašnja situacija je nešto bolja u odnosu na devedesete, ali gora ako se uporedi sa 1980. i 1970. godinama. Uprkos visokim stopama rasta do 2011. godine, distribucija prihoda je bila glavni uzrok poboljšanja mera siromaštva i ekstremnog siromaštva. Ovaj rad ispituje rizik od preokreta u narednim godinama u okviru ostvarenog oporavka. Ovaj rizik se zasniva na mogućem asimetričnom efektu poslovnog ciklusa na socijalne pokazatelje, analizirajući na osnovu prihoda i elastičnosti raspodele prihoda siromaštva i ekstremnog siromaštva procenjene za period 2003-2017. Ključne reči: Siromaštvo, rast prihoda, distribucija prihoda, poslovni ciklus, Argentina.