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The Effects of Structural Change on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis

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  • Ivan D. Trofimov

Abstract

This paper attempts to enhance empirical understanding of the effects of structural-change variables on economic outcomes. The relationships between sectoral shares and (1) the speed of structural change and (2) economic growth were examined for a large panel of 111 economies over the period of 1971–2018. Given the time series properties of the series and the absence of a long-run relationship between them, the panel OLS and VAR models were employed. The results are largely in line with previous empirical research: it was established that a lack of industrialisation effort (manifested in the persistence of agriculture as a share of GDP) and ‘servicisation’ (the expansion of the services share of GDP) negatively affect GDP growth rates. In contrast, a growth in industry and manufacturing shares positively influences economic growth, as does accelerated structural transformation (represented by the respective index of structural change). JEL: L16, C33, O14, O57.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan D. Trofimov, 0. "The Effects of Structural Change on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 0(0), pages 1-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:0:y:0:i:0:p:1-43:id:1735
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    File URL: https://panoeconomicus.org/index.php/jorunal/article/view/1735/780
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial structure ; Structural change ; Panel data models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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