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Testing J-Curve Effect On Trade Balance In Turkish Economy

Author

Listed:
  • KANSEL,Zubeyir Can

    (Graduate School of Social Science, Anadolu University, Turkey.)

  • BARI,Bilgin

    (Department of Economics, Anadolu University, Turkey.)

Abstract

This study researches the effects of changes in the exchange rate on the trade balance after the transition to the floating exchange rate in the Turkish economy. For this purpose, ARDL and ECM models have been developed by using quarterly data from 2003 through 2018. The starting point of the research is to examine the validity of the JCurve theory in the Turkish economy. According to the results of the analysis of the main model used in the study, there is no J-Curve effect on the trade balance in the related period. The results state that the effect of changes in exchange rates on the foreign trade balance is limited. The main reason for that is the high usage of imported intermediate goods and inputs in production. The results of analysis show that the fundamental structural problem of Turkey's economy is the usage of imported intermediate goods and inputs. Therefore, the effect of the exchange rate on trade balance differs from theoretical expectations. The main policy result of the study is that foreign trade balance might be improved by increasing the usage of domestic intermediate goods and inputs in production.

Suggested Citation

  • KANSEL,Zubeyir Can & BARI,Bilgin, 2020. "Testing J-Curve Effect On Trade Balance In Turkish Economy," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 24(1), pages 53-69, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:24:y:2020:i:1:p:53-69
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
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    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2015. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on U.S.-Chilean Industry Trade Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 61(4), pages 353-371.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty & Amr Hosny, 2015. "The effects of exchange-rate volatility on industry trade between the US and Egypt," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 93-117, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Flows; Real Effective Exchange Rate; ARDL model; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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