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On the age dynamics of learned societies - taking the example of the Austrian Academy Sciences

Author

Listed:
  • Gustav Feichtinger
  • Alexia Prskawetz
  • Fernando Riosmena
  • Inga Freund
  • Maria Winkler-Dworak

Abstract

In a hierarchical organisation of stable size the annual intake is strictly determined by the number of deaths and a statutory retirement age (if there is one). In this paper we reconstruct the population of the Austrian Academy of Sciences from 1847 to 2005. For the Austrian Academy of Sciences we observe a shift of its age distribution towards older ages, which on the one hand is due to rising life expectancy, i.e., a rising age at death, as well as to an increased age at entry on the other hand. Therefore the number of new entrants has been fluctuating considerably - especially reflecting several statutory changes - and the length of tenure before reaching the age limit has declined during the second half of the last century. Based on alternative scenarios of the age distribution of incoming members - including a young, an old, the 'current' and a mixed-age model - we then project the population of the Austrian Academy and its ageing forward in time. Our results indicate that the 'optimum policy' would be to elect either young or old aged new members.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustav Feichtinger & Alexia Prskawetz & Fernando Riosmena & Inga Freund & Maria Winkler-Dworak, 2007. "On the age dynamics of learned societies - taking the example of the Austrian Academy Sciences," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 5(1), pages 107-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:5:y:2007:i:1:p:107-131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cai:poeine:pope_401_0081 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. James W. Vaupel, 1981. "Over-Tenured Universities: The Mathematics of Reduction," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(8), pages 904-913, August.
    3. Gustav Feichtinger & Alexander Mehlmann, 1976. "The Recruitment Trajectory Corresponding to Particular Stock Sequences in Markovian Person-Flow Models," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 175-184, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner & Klaus Prettner, 2009. "Agglomeration and population ageing in a two region model of exogenous growth," VID Working Papers 0901, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    2. Gustav Feichtinger & Dieter Grass & Maria Winkler-Dworak, 2020. "The mathematics of ageing:," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(2), pages 371-399, June.
    3. Herbert Dawid & Gustav Feichtinger & Joshua R. Goldstein & Vladimir Veliov, 2009. "Keeping a learned society young," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(22), pages 541-558.

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