IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vid/yearbk/v21y2023i1oid0x003e34be.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Parsimonious stochastic forecasting of international and internal migration on the NUTS-3 level – an outlook of regional depopulation trends in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Patrizio Vanella
  • Timon Hellwagner
  • Philipp Deschermeier

Abstract

Substantiated knowledge of future demographic changes that is derived from sound statistical and mathematical methods is a crucial determinant of regional planning. Of the components of demographic developments, migration shapes regional demographics the most over the short term. However, despite its importance, existing approaches model future regional migration based on deterministic assumptions that do not sufficiently account for its highly probabilistic nature. In response to this shortcoming in the literature, our paper uses age- and gender-specific migration data for German NUTS-3 regions over the 1995–2019 period and compares the performance of a variety of forecasting models in backtests. Using the bestperforming model specification and drawing on Monte Carlo simulations, we present a stochastic forecast of regional migration dynamics across German regions until 2040 and analyze their role in regional depopulation. The results provide evidence that well-known age-specific migration patterns across the urban-rural continuum of regions, such as the education-induced migration of young adults, are very likely to persist, and to continue to shape future regional (de)population dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrizio Vanella & Timon Hellwagner & Philipp Deschermeier, 2023. "Parsimonious stochastic forecasting of international and internal migration on the NUTS-3 level – an outlook of regional depopulation trends in Germany," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 21(1), pages 361-415.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:21:y:2023:i:1:oid:0x003e34be
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://austriaca.at/0xc1aa5576_0x003e34be.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aude Bernard & Martin Bell, 2018. "Educational selectivity of internal migrants: A global assessment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(29), pages 835-854.
    2. Henger, Ralph M. & Oberst, Christian, 2019. "Alterung der Gesellschaft im Stadt-Land Vergleich," IW-Kurzberichte 16/2019, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maximiliano Alvarez & Vicente Royuela, 2022. "The effect of labor‐market differentials on interregional migration in Spain: A meta‐regression analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 913-937, September.
    2. Philip Rees, 2018. "Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 037-053.
    3. Nazareno Panichella & Stefano Cantalini, 2023. "Is Geographical Mobility Beneficial? The Impact of the South-to-North Internal Migration on Occupational Achievement in Italy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(5), pages 1-22, October.
    4. Jorge González Chapela & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall Castello, 2023. "Education and internal migration: evidence from a child labor reform in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 143-164, June.
    5. Rawaa Laajimi & Julie Le Gallo, 2022. "Push and pull factors in Tunisian internal migration: The role of human capital," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 771-799, June.
    6. Emmanuel Nshakira-Rukundo & Essa Chanie Mussa & Nathan Nshakira & Nicolas Gerber & Joachim von Braun, 2021. "Impact of community-based health insurance on utilisation of preventive health services in rural Uganda: a propensity score matching approach," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 203-227, June.
    7. Miguel González-Leonardo & Aude Bernard & Joan Garcia-Roman & Antonio López-Gay, 2022. "Educational selectivity of native and foreign-born internal migrants in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(34), pages 1033-1046.
    8. Xue Peng, 2024. "Migration behaviors leaving metropolitan areas: assessing the impacts of health risks and teleworking in the COVID-19 context," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Grytten, Jostein & Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune, 2024. "Fertility and immigration: Do immigrant mothers hand down their fertility pattern to the next generation? Evidence from Norway," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Ekaterina Sprenger, 2024. "What Makes Us Move, What Makes Us Stay: The Role of Language and Culture in Intra-EU Mobility," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1825-1855, December.
    11. Thomsen, Stephan L. & Vogt, Daniel & Brausewetter, Lars, 2019. "Wohnungsmarkt und Wohnungspolitik in Deutschland: Situation und Optionen," IZA Standpunkte 97, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:21:y:2023:i:1:oid:0x003e34be. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernhard Rengs (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.