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Modeling Shifts in Willingness to Pay from a Bayesian Updating Perspective

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  • Jeffrey R. Czajkowski

Abstract

This paper derives a structural shift empirical specification for a double-bound dichotomous choice contingent valuation methodology premised upon willingness-to-pay (WTP) shifts ensuing from a representative model of respondent Bayesian updating behavior. We demonstrate by way of data simulations that a traditional structural shift specification may often fail at estimating true WTP in this context. Further simulations demonstrate that a simple extension of the traditional structural shift model derived explicitly from our Bayesian framework can correct for much of the WTP bias, with an empirical application confirming the simulation outcomes. Finally, we investigate the relationship between strategic behavior and WTP shifts.

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  • Jeffrey R. Czajkowski, 2009. "Modeling Shifts in Willingness to Pay from a Bayesian Updating Perspective," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(2), pages 308-328.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:85:y:2009:i:2:p:308-328
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    1. Loomis, John & Ekstrand, Earl, 1998. "Alternative approaches for incorporating respondent uncertainty when estimating willingness to pay: the case of the Mexican spotted owl," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 29-41, October.
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    6. John C. Whitehead, 2002. "Incentive Incompatibility and Starting-Point Bias in Iterative Valuation Questions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(2), pages 285-297.
    7. Li Chuan-Zhong & Mattsson Leif, 1995. "Discrete Choice under Preference Uncertainty: An Improved Structural Model for Contingent Valuation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 256-269, March.
    8. Cameron, Trudy Ann & James, Michelle D, 1987. "Efficient Estimation Methods for "Closed-ended' Contingent Valuation Surveys," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 269-276, May.
    9. Donald M. McLeod & Olvar Bergland, 1999. "Willingness-to-Pay Estimates Using the Double-Bounded Dichotomous-Choice Contingent Valuation Format: A Test for Validity and Precision in a Bayesian Framework," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 75(1), pages 115-125.
    10. Carson, R.T. & Mitchell, R.C. & Hanemann, W.M. & Kopp, R.J. & Presser, S. & Ruud, P.A., 1992. "A Contingent Valuation Study of Lost Passive Use Values Resulting From the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill," MPRA Paper 6984, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Peterson, Hikaru H. & Bernard, John C. & Fox, John A. (Sean) & Peterson, Jeffrey M., 2013. "Japanese Consumers' Valuation of Rice and Pork from Domestic, U.S., and Other Origins," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-14, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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