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A Time Series Analysis of Layoff Rates

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  • Peter S. Barth

Abstract

This study attempts to shed some light on labor market behavior by examining layoff rates. Multiple regressions are employed to estimate layoff rate functions for 20 manufacturing industries using quarterly data. Some industries are found to postpone layoffs in the face of falling demand by at least a quarter period. Many industries apparently adjust their layoff rates to take account of the probability of rehiring their own employees. This behavior is likely to be associated with the degree of specific training that employees have. It represents a potential impediment to countercyclical policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter S. Barth, 1971. "A Time Series Analysis of Layoff Rates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 6(4), pages 448-465.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:6:y:1971:i:4:p:448-465
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    2. James W. Moser, 1984. "A Principal Component Analysis of Labor Market Indicators," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 243-257, Jul-Sep.

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