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Childhood Confidence, Schooling, and the Labor Market: Evidence from the PSID

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  • Lucy Page
  • Hannah Ruebeck

Abstract

We link over- and underconfidence in math at ages 8–11 to education and employment outcomes 22 years later among the children of PSID households. About 20 percent of children have markedly biased beliefs about their math ability, and beliefs are strongly gendered. Conditional on measured ability, childhood over- and underconfidence predict adolescent test scores, high school and college graduation, majoring or working in STEM, earnings, and unemployment. Across all metrics, higher confidence predicts better outcomes. These biased beliefs persist into adulthood and could continue to affect outcomes as respondents age, since intermediate outcomes do not fully explain these long-run correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucy Page & Hannah Ruebeck, 2025. "Childhood Confidence, Schooling, and the Labor Market: Evidence from the PSID," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 60(2), pages 653-691.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:60:y:2025:i:2:p:653-691
    Note: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0621-11743R3
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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