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The Great Recession’s Baby‐Less Recovery: The Role of Unintended Births

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  • Kasey Buckles
  • Melanie Guldi
  • Lucie Schmidt

Abstract

U.S. fertility declined as expected during the Great Recession, but then continued to fall throughout the recovery period. This drop was more acute among young women and unmarried women, whose births are more likely to be unintended. We use a combined‐survey estimation strategy to estimate birth intention consistently over time. We find that between 2007 and 2019 intended births fell by 8.5 percent, while unintended births fell by 22 percent. The decline in unintended births is primarily explained by changes in demographic characteristics of women of childbearing age, reductions in sexual activity, and shifts to more effective methods of contraception.

Suggested Citation

  • Kasey Buckles & Melanie Guldi & Lucie Schmidt, 2025. "The Great Recession’s Baby‐Less Recovery: The Role of Unintended Births," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 60(1), pages 224-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:60:y:2025:i:1:p:224-258
    Note: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.1220-11395R3
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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