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Agricultural Productivity and Fertility Rates: Evidence from the Oil Palm Boom in Indonesia

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  • Esther Gehrke
  • Christoph Kubitza

Abstract

We analyze the link between agricultural productivity growth and fertility rates, using the oil palm boom in Indonesia as an empirical setting. We find consistent negative effects of oil palm expansion on fertility during the period 1996–2016. This finding appears to be linked to rising farm profits that led to consumption growth, an expansion of the nonagricultural sector, increasing wage returns to education, and higher school enrollment. Together, these findings suggest that agricultural productivity growth can play an important role in accelerating the fertility transition, as long as the economic benefits are large enough to translate into local economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Esther Gehrke & Christoph Kubitza, 2024. "Agricultural Productivity and Fertility Rates: Evidence from the Oil Palm Boom in Indonesia," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(1), pages 316-347.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:59:y:2024:i:1:p:316-347
    Note: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0520-10905R1
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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