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Rising College Expectations among Youth in the United States: A Comparison of the 1979 and 1997 NLSY

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  • John R. Reynolds
  • Jennifer Pemberton

Abstract

We examine the rise in college expectations among 15- and 16-year-olds in the 1979 and 1997 NLSY. Probit models estimate the effects of gender, race/ethnicity, family characteristics, and local economic conditions on the probability of expecting a college degree. Race/ethnic differences and the influences of family resources and county economic conditions declined between 1979 and 1997. In contrast, girls became more likely to expect a college degree than boys, and family structure grew in importance over time. Family resources and structure appear to shape expectations largely through differences in school peers, teacher quality and interest, and past academic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • John R. Reynolds & Jennifer Pemberton, 2001. "Rising College Expectations among Youth in the United States: A Comparison of the 1979 and 1997 NLSY," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(4), pages 703-726.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:36:y:2001:i:4:p:703-726
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