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Analytical Approaches to Estimate Economic Security of the Region

Author

Listed:
  • Valeriy Tsvetkov

    (Market Economy Institute RAS)

  • Mikhail Dudin

    (Market Economy Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences (IPR RAS) Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of Russian Federation)

  • Nikolai Lyasnikov

    (Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of Russian Federation)

Abstract

In the conditions of continuing foreign policy instability, the problem of ensuring economic security at the national and régional levels is steadily increasing. The existing methodologies for assessing the security status of regional economies are static. Furthermore, they include a scattered list of indicators that are difficult to consistently interpret when conducting an analysis. Therefore, the authors proposed an indicative dynamic method for assessing changes in the security situation of the regional economy. As the initial data we have used indicators of the development of the Sverdlovsk region for the period from 2010 to 2017 inclusive. We have achieved the following results. Firstly, we have suggested the set of the indicators, which result in changes in the level of economic security of the region. Moreover, we have structured the main factors that have a formative and destructive impact on the economy of the region. Secondly, the conducted analysis has shown that the economic development of the Sverdlovsk region can be divided into two main phases: upward (2014) and downward (from 2014 to the present). This is a consequence of the instability of the regional economy to external shocks due to weak diversification as well as low entrepreneurial activity. Thirdly, the growing threats to the economy of the Sverdlovsk region lead to a decrease in the welfare of the population. In 2015, the level of wages in Moscow was 2 times higher than in the Sverdlovsk region, however, by the end of 2017, the level of wages in Moscow was already 2,2 times higher than in the Sverdlovsk region. At the same time, in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Tyumen, the growth rate of income of the population was about 10-11 % for 2017, while, in the Sverdlovsk region the income growth for the same period was only 5 %. The obtained results can contribute to the development of the Sverdlovsk region strategic programs aimed at ensuring the sustainable socio-economic development of the region. The findings concerning the level of economic security in the Sverdlovsk region are not final. This means the need for further development of economic and mathematical models that will logically complement the methods proposed in this article for assessing the economic security of Russian regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeriy Tsvetkov & Mikhail Dudin & Nikolai Lyasnikov, 2019. "Analytical Approaches to Estimate Economic Security of the Region," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2019:i:1:p:1-12
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. Senchagov, 2001. "Economic Security as a Basis of Russia's National Security," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 8.
    2. Yunju Nam & Yungsoo Lee & Shawn McMahon & Michael Sherraden, 2016. "New Measures of Economic Security and Development: Savings Goals for Short- and Long-Term Economic Needs," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 611-637, November.
    3. Vladimir Bochko, 2014. "Prospects of development of Midlle Ural in conditions of growing economic threats," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 43-53.
    4. Aleksey Davankov & Dmitry Dvinin & Evgeniy Postnikov, 2016. "Methodological Tools for the Assessment of Ecological and Socio-Economic Environment in the Region within the Limits of the Sustainability of Biosphere," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1029-1039.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional development; social and economic development; economic security; regional economy; regional development management; economic diversification; threats to economic security; socio-economic management of the region; equalization of social and economic development; welfare of the region’s population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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