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Projection of the Russian economic development in the framework of the optimal control model by investments in fixed assets

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Tarasyev

    (the Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics named after N. N. Krasovskii of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Anastasy Usova

    (the Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics named after N. N. Krasovskii of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Yulia Shmotina

    (Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop an economic growth model taking into account two factors of production: fixed capital and labor force, to study the dynamics of GDP growth. The dependence of the output of these factors is described by a production function of the exponential type. Within the framework of the optimal control theory, the optimization problem for investment levels is being solved to maximize the integral index of consumption. We study the qualitative properties of optimal trajectories as solutions of the Hamiltonian systems arising in Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium solutions of the economic system is implemented with respect to the elasticity coefficients of the production function, the depreciation rate of the capital, and the discount factor, and growth trends are indicated. The econometric analysis of the model parameters is provided basing on real data for the Russian economy. In accordance with the results of the regression analysis, the projection of economic development is constructed in conditions of the applicability of the economic growth model.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Tarasyev & Anastasy Usova & Yulia Shmotina, 2014. "Projection of the Russian economic development in the framework of the optimal control model by investments in fixed assets," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 265-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2014:i:3:p:265-273
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