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Dynamic multiregional model of labour migration: construction and realization

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandra Vasilyeva

    (Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences - Ural Branch, Centre for Economic Security,)

  • Aleksandr Tarasyev

    (Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic multiregional model of labor migration in continuous time within the framework of the neoclassical economics. The model can predict the dynamics of migration flows as well as the dynamics of economic effects of migration simultaneously for host regions and source countries. Thanks to liberalization of the migratory legislation of the Russian Federation in 2007, the model can be used for Russian regions and CIS states, which citizens were granted entry without a visa and a simplified procedure of employment in Russia. Employing the model to statistical data, forecast trajectories of migration flows to Russian regions from CIS states have been received for the period since 2010 to 2016. The predicted migration looks quite realistic and has important policy consequences. In particular, these findings can be used for developing work permit quotas.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra Vasilyeva & Aleksandr Tarasyev, 2012. "Dynamic multiregional model of labour migration: construction and realization," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 140-148.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2012:i:4:p:140-148
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandr Tarasyev, 2013. "Construction of the migration flows forecasting into Russian regions," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 193-199.

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