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Regressional modeling and forecasting of economic growth for arkhangelsk region

Author

Listed:
  • Nina Goridko

    (Vyatka Social and Economic Institute)

  • Robert Nizhegorodtsev

Abstract

The regression models of GRP, considering the impact of three main factors: investment in fixed assets, wages amount, and, importantly, the innovation factor –the expenditures for research and development, are constructed in this paper on the empirical data for Arkhangelsk region. That approach permits to evaluate explicitly the contribution of innovation to economic growth. Regression analysis is the main research instrument, all calculations areperformedin the Microsoft Excel. There were made meaningful conclusions regarding the potential of the region's GRP growth by various factors, including impacts of positive and negative time lags. Adequate and relevant models are the base for estimation and forecasting values of the dependent variable (GRP) and evaluating their confidence intervals. The invented method of research can be used in factor assessment and prediction of regional economic growth, including growth by expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nina Goridko & Robert Nizhegorodtsev, 2012. "Regressional modeling and forecasting of economic growth for arkhangelsk region," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 122-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2012:i:4:p:122-130
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