IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ura/ecregj/v1y2010i2p38-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Theoretical and methodological approach to forecasting of socio-demographic development of a region

Author

Listed:
  • Valeriy Chereshnev
  • Aleksandr Kuklin

    (Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Aleksandra Vasilyeva

    (Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences - Ural Branch, Centre for Economic Security,)

Abstract

The basic problems of current socio-demographic development of Russian regions are considered raising the need to find socio-economic and socio-psychological reasons for current demographic tendencies. Th eoretical substantiation of a demographic situation in Russia taking into account characteristics of the second demographic transition and influence of social stress has been given. Definition of the concept “eff ective sociodemographic development of a region†owing to synergetic effect in terms of socio-economic and demographic system interaction has been suggested. The forecasting method of socio-demographic region development on the basis of sharing of synergy and simulation modeling has been offered. Probabilistic forecasts of the population size of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation being parts of the Ural Federal District till 2025 have been obtained; the given forecasts are to estimate possible ways of socio-demographic development of the Ural Federal District.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeriy Chereshnev & Aleksandr Kuklin & Aleksandra Vasilyeva, 2010. "Theoretical and methodological approach to forecasting of socio-demographic development of a region," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 38-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2010:i:2:p:38-46
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economyofregion.ru/Data/Issues/ER2010/June_2010/ERJune2010_38_46.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olga Kalachikova & Alexandra Shabunova, 2012. "Population policy of Russia: regional dimension," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 77-89.
    2. Boris Digas & Valeriy Rozenberg & Anastasiya Boyarskih, 2015. "Study of the Eco-Economic Indicators by Means of the New Version of the Merge Integrated Model. Part 1," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 346-356.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2010:i:2:p:38-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexey Naydenov (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economyofregion.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.