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Entre as reformas e os deficits: vinte anos de previdencia social no Brasil
[Between reforms and deficits: Twenty years of the social security system in Brazil]

Author

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  • Benito Adelmo Salomão

Abstract

Este artigo analisa a sustentabilidade do regime previdenciário brasileiro entre 01/2003 e 06/2022 via Modelos Autorregressivos com Defasagens Distribuídas (ARDL, Autorregressive Distributed Lags Models). A análise de cointegração mostra que, apesar dos déficits, as relações de longo prazo entre receitas e despesas são mantidas para o Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS), também desagregando entre os regimes urbano e rural. A análise de curto prazo aferida pelos Mecanismos de Correção de Erro (ECM Error Correction Models) indicam que a dinâmica do ajuste à trajetória de longo prazo é demasiadamente lenta, menos de 5% dos choques retornam à tendência de longo prazo no 1° mês em todos os modelos. Isso pode estar por trazdos consecutivos déficits apresentados pelo RGPS nas últimas décadas

Suggested Citation

  • Benito Adelmo Salomão, 2024. "Entre as reformas e os deficits: vinte anos de previdencia social no Brasil [Between reforms and deficits: Twenty years of the social security system in Brazil]," Estudios Economicos, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Departamento de Economia, vol. 41(83), pages 183-210, july-dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:uns:esteco:v:41:y:2024:i:83:p:183-210
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2024.3738
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    previdência social; regime rural; regime urbano; cointegração; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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