Kesan Dasar Fiskal Terhadap Perbelanjaan Swasta: Analisis SVAR di Malaysia

Starting with a prolonged budget deficit episodes since 1998 in less developing countries (LDC), the government tax revenue collection is unable to cover the expenses. This led the government to consider on alternative sources of funding such as issuance of bonds. According to the loanable funds theory, by issuing government bonds led to decrease the bond prices and thus tend to increase the market interest rates. The increased of market interest rates led to increase the cost of funds, in which caused the firms to respond by shrinking their size of the investment. This indicates that an increase of government spending that financed through bond issuing, cannot give a full effect on an increase in national income, however that will create a crowding out effect on private investment. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of fiscal policy that is the government spending shocks and government revenue shocks on private investment in Malaysia. This study uses a structural vector autoregressive model for a small open economy in identifying the dynamic response of fiscal policy shock on private investment. The data set of this study is a quarterly time series spanning from 1991:1-2016:3. Impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition (VDC) are used to analysing the effectiveness of fiscal policy on private expenditure. The main results indicated that government spending shocks are found to crowd out private investment, while for private consumption had a positive effect. For government revenue shocks are found the same results in which indicated that private investment has a negative effect, whereas for government consumption has a positive effect.