Fluxo de capitais e crescimento econômico de longo prazo: teoria, modelo e evidências recentes para as economias emergentes

The aim of this work consists in evaluate the relationship between capital flows and macroeconomic performance of emerging economies in the recent period. The theory presented points to indeterminacy concerning the causal link betweencapital flows, savings/investment and net exports, as well as delayed effects of variables during the adjustment process of change in the flow of capital. In an attempt to capture the relations of causality, a macrodynamic model of growth with foreign savings is developed, discussing the relationship between capital flows of short and long term. The results indicate that the inflow of speculative capital represents a vicious trap for emerging economies. While an increasing capital inflow can be effective to control inflation as a result of exchange rate appreciation, it brings about a negative consequence by weakening the saving-investment relationship. An econometric analysis covering some emerging countries and using the method originally proposed by Dahlberg and Johansson (2000) is also prensented. The results show a positive relationship between exports and growth of emerging economies selected. Moreover, the results ratify the hypothesis that short term capital flows did not improve the growth performance of these economies, actually undermining their growth potential.