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The export-led growth hypothesis revisited: theory and evidence

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  • Hildegart Ahumada
  • Pablo Sanguinetti

Abstract

Export growth is often singled out as a key aspect in processes of fast and sustainable increases in per capita income. In this paper we revisit this export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH). From an empirical point of view we study this phenomenon applying Granger-type tests on panel data. The results seem to confirm that, for the sample of countries and the period under study, exports did behave as the “engine of growth” as they Granger-caused investment, output growth and imports. In the theoretical part of the paper we reframe the ELGH standard model in terms of recent models of endogenous growth so as to make it more consistent with these empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Hildegart Ahumada & Pablo Sanguinetti, 1995. "The export-led growth hypothesis revisited: theory and evidence," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 22(2 Year 19), pages 327-355, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:22:y:1995:i:2:p:327-355
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 2022. "Exports and long-run growth: The case of Spain, 1850-2020," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1314-1337, December.
    2. Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2009. "Conditioned Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Panel Threshold Regressions Approach," MPRA Paper 13417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jaime Andrés Collazos & Pedro Luis Rosero, 2010. "¿Posee el Valle del Cauca una economía transformadora de importaciones orientadas a la Exportación?," Documentos de Políticas Públicas 6880, Universidad Icesi.
    4. Javed, Zanib & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Impact of Export Composition on Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 71519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kristian Orsini & Mario Pletikosa, 2019. "Croatia's Tourism Industry – Part 2: Curse or Blessing?," European Economy - Economic Briefs 047, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen D�az-Roldán, 2012. "Do exports cause growth? Some evidence for the new EU members," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 125-131, August.
    7. Klimis Vogiatzoglou, 2019. "Export Composition and Long-run Economic Growth Impact: A Cointegration Analysis for ASEAN ‘Latecomer’ Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 168-191, May.
    8. Sahoo, Auro Kumar & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu & Sahu, Naresh Chandra, 2014. "Mining export, industrial production and economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-34.

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    Keywords

    Export-led hypothesis; growth.;

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