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The True Cost of Social Security

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander W. Blocker
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Stephen A. Ross
  • Sergio Villar Vallenas

Abstract

Implicit government obligations represent the lion’s share of government liabilities in the United States and many other countries. Yet these liabilities are rarely measured, let alone properly adjusted for their risk. This paper shows, by example, how modern asset pricing can be used to value implicit fiscal debts taking into account their risk properties. The example is the US Social Security system’s net liability to working-age Americans. Marking this debt to market makes a big difference. Based on our preferred estimate, its market value is 86% higher than the Social Security trustees’ valuation method suggests. Our alternative arbitrage pricing theory specifications range from 74% to 115% higher than that of the Social Security Administration.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander W. Blocker & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Stephen A. Ross & Sergio Villar Vallenas, 2019. "The True Cost of Social Security," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 131-163.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:tpolec:doi:10.1086/703231
    DOI: 10.1086/703231
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    Cited by:

    1. John Geanokoplos & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2010. "Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, pages 213-233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Laurence Kotlikoff, 2013. "The US Fiscal Cliff – When Economists Recklessly Endanger the Economy," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(2), pages 03-08, August.
    3. Laurence Kotlikoff, 2013. "The US Fiscal Cliff – When Economists Recklessly Endanger the Economy," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(02), pages 03-08, August.
    4. Palmer, Edward, 2011. "Generic NDC - Equilibrium, Valuation and Risk Sharing with and without NDC Bonds," Working Paper Series 2011:3, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    5. Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2019. "Valuing Government Obligations When Markets Are Incomplete," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1815-1855, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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