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When Estimated Economic Effects Fail the Sniff Test: Tax Examples

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  • Jane G. Gravelle

Abstract

The gold standard for informing policy makers is when theory, model results, and observations tell a similar story. Some estimated economic effects influence policy but are not reasonable. This paper discusses several tax examples where estimates based on one tool of inquiry are inconsistent with the findings of others. Examples discussed are the luxury-boat tax, the capital gains realization response, the corporate income tax, and the life-cycle model. The common thread in all is that when economists bring all their tools to bear, the results fail the sniff test.

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  • Jane G. Gravelle, 2023. "When Estimated Economic Effects Fail the Sniff Test: Tax Examples," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 621-645.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:nattax:doi:10.1086/725855
    DOI: 10.1086/725855
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