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A Short-Run ARDL-Bounds Model for Forecasting and Simulating the Price of Lobster

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  • Daniel V. Gordon

Abstract

Since the early 1990s collapse of the groundfish fishery in Canada, crustaceans (particularly lobster) have developed into important fisheries. Prices play an important role in setting income and welfare levels of fishermen, creating policy interest in good forecasts of the ex-vessel price of lobster. In this article, Pesaran’s autoregressive distributed lag/error-correction Bounds model estimates a short-run inverse demand curve for Canadian lobster. The advantage of the Pesaran model is that it is valid regardless of the stationary/probability properties of the variables in question (i.e., ~I(1), ~I(0), or fractionally integrated) and allows the short-run model to encompass long-run equilibrium constraints. The data represents monthly observations for the period 1990(1)–2016(12). The estimated model is tested and validated, and dynamic forecasts capture well turning points in the data. Monthly price forecasts for the period 2017–18 are generated under a number of alternative price policy scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel V. Gordon, 2020. "A Short-Run ARDL-Bounds Model for Forecasting and Simulating the Price of Lobster," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 43-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:mresec:doi:10.1086/707063
    DOI: 10.1086/707063
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    Cited by:

    1. Junhao Wu & Yuan Hu & Daqing Wu & Zhengyong Yang, 2022. "An Aquatic Product Price Forecast Model Using VMD-IBES-LSTM Hybrid Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-26, August.
    2. Patrice Guillotreau & Frédéric Lantz & Lesya Nadzon & Jonathan Rault & Olivier Maury, 2023. "Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices?," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 29-46.
    3. Guillotreau Patrice & Frédéric Lantz & Lesya Nadzon & Jonathan Rault & Olivier Maury, 2023. "Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices? [Transmission des prix entre les marchés de l'énergie et du poisson : est-ce que les cours du pétro," Post-Print hal-03948692, HAL.

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